{"id":405,"date":"2014-07-10T19:03:39","date_gmt":"2014-07-10T19:03:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kathleenstarmer.com\/?p=405"},"modified":"2016-02-03T06:22:55","modified_gmt":"2016-02-03T06:22:55","slug":"what-should-you-expect-from-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vosvado.com\/what-should-you-expect-from-el-nino","title":{"rendered":"What Should You Expect from El Ni\u00f1o?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Every two to eight years, Ma Nature likes to have a little meterological fun with us. In fact, part of the joke is the irregularity of its timing; the other part is the strength of its punch. What am I talking about? El Ni\u00f1o, of course!<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o (the boy, or \u201cChrist Child\u201d in Spanish) was first named by fisherman off the west coast of South America. They noticed that the ocean currents would warm up around Christmas (hence, the Christ Child reference) every couple of years, and that this caused their catch to become rather skimpy. No bueno. What they couldn\u2019t know is that this was part of a much larger phenomenon that dramatically affects weather around the planet, bringing insane flooding to some regions and parching droughts to others. To put it bluntly, really strong El Ni\u00f1os can be a bitch. Or would that be a bastard? But I digress.<\/p>\n

The atmospheric dance that takes place to bring about an El Ni\u00f1o is pretty complex, and since I\u2019m sure you\u2019ve many, many other websites to peruse today, perhaps it\u2019s best to give you a concise, snappy summation of the event that you can whip out at cocktail parties whenever you want to look all sciency. To wit: in an El Ni\u00f1o year, all the rain that is typically dumped onto the countries of the western Pacific and Indonesia shifts to the east, leaving the western regions parched and the more central Pacific countries soaked.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The most recent El Ni\u00f1o (and one of only two \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1os ever recorded) was in 1997\/1998. That winter was the inaugural period of a phenology<\/a> study I set up in northern California, which involved me crouching outdoors for hours on end counting leaves of various shrub species. Oh, the rain. Relentless, soul-soaking rain. Even my fancy Gortex couldn\u2019t keep up. Eventually, I purchased a rubber rain suit, like you see road construction crews wearing. It wasn\u2019t breathable, but it kept me from being utterly soaked to the skin at the end of each day in the field. Good times\u2026.<\/p>\n

Where was I? Oh, yes. So El Ni\u00f1o can mean extreme rainfall in California. It can also mean intense droughts and record high temperature averages worldwide (the last El Ni\u00f1o elevated land and sea temps an average of 1.2o<\/sup>F over averages calculated since 1880<\/em>).<\/p>\n

Principal scientist Tim Stockdale of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts<\/a> (I had never heard of them until recently, but apparently, they\u2019re one of the top weather modeling groups) says there\u2019s a 90{5b94df0808d5051ae4460ba229ec68b809d99f898aebd4fa5019c7ba642362c2} chance of El Ni\u00f1o striking this year, but that there is really no way to predict the severity of the event for another few months due to the randomness generated by wind patterns. However, some Asian countries\u2014having been burned by El Ni\u00f1o in the past\u2014are already taking precautionary measures<\/a>, including enactment of water conservation measures and food stockpiling. High five for preparedness!<\/p>\n

\""SQUIRREL!"\"<\/a>

“SQUIRREL!”<\/p><\/div>\n

To simplify the structure of this article, I\u2019ll be breaking down the expected El Ni\u00f1o hazards by region. If you\u2019re pressed for time\u2014or just have a short attention span (\u201cSquirrel!\u201d)\u2014skip to your area for the tidbits that will affect you directly.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o HAZARDS (or bennies) BY REGION<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

AUSTRALIA<\/h2>\n
\"Oz<\/a>

Oz already had a brutal go of it last year. Looks like there’s no relief for awhile. \ud83d\ude41<\/p><\/div>\n

Prognosis: intensification of the current drought, bringing more wildfires and crippling heat indices.<\/p>\n

CONTINENTAL USA: NORTH ATLANTIC<\/h2>\n
\"Party<\/a>

Party on with yo’ bad self!<\/p><\/div>\n

Prognosis: milder winter\u2026finally!<\/p>\n

CONTINENTAL USA: SOUTH ATLANTIC<\/h2>\n
\"This<\/a>

This lady is clearly enjoying the increased winds.<\/p><\/div>\n

Prognosis: more winds along the coast, which means fewer hurricanes will form. But the tradeoff is, it\u2019ll be way wetter. Like, up to 12\u201d wetter<\/a>.<\/p>\n

CONTINENTAL USA: CENTRAL REGION<\/h2>\n
\"Iowa,<\/a>

Iowa, you’ll be wanting this.<\/p><\/div>\n

Prognosis: warmer\u2026and probably drier<\/a>. During the last El Ni\u00f1o, folks in this area referred to it as The Year Without a Winter.<\/p>\n

CONTINENTAL USA: PACIFIC NORTHWEST<\/h2>\n
\"I'm<\/a>

I’m using this to illustrate the yin\/yang issue, but dang, are those some long thumbs!<\/p><\/div>\n

Prognosis: who can say?? According to Oregon State University<\/a>, there\u2019s really no predicting how any given El Ni\u00f1o event will pan out for the region. Usually, they see drier, warmer temps, but every so often, they get some crazy flooding out of the deal. My advice? Hope for the best\u2026but get some sandbags, just in case.<\/p>\n

CONTINENTAL USA: CALIFORNIA and SOUTHWEST<\/h2>\n
\"Row,<\/a>

Row, row, row your boat….<\/p><\/div>\n

Prognosis: rain, baby, rain! Initially, this will be great, as it will provide relief from the 3-year drought. But then, we\u2019re looking at flash floods, mudslides, and road washouts.<\/p>\n

CANADA AND ALASKA<\/h2>\n
\"Finally,<\/a>

Finally, Santa can take that well-deserved beach vacay!<\/p><\/div>\n

Prognosis: balmy (relatively speaking). For our friends in northern climes, El Ni\u00f1o can actually make the weather somewhat pleasant, due to the influx of warm air it brings to Canada and Alaska. Mmm, balmy, sunny Alaskan beach getaways\u2026. Like Hawaii, only with biting black flies.<\/p>\n

MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA<\/h2>\n
\"Fido<\/a>

Fido knows. Dogs always know.<\/p><\/div>\n

Prognosis: Look for a warmer and wetter Pacific coast (hello, humidity!) and a cooler, much wetter Gulf coast, especially up toward the US border. The unifying theme here is \u201cwet.\u201d<\/p>\n

INDIA<\/h2>\n
\"No<\/a>

No funny words here. I feel for India. They just can’t seem to catch a meteorological break.<\/p><\/div>\n

Prognosis: Drier, which will have a huge impact on crops. A bad yield for India\u2019s crops mean higher prices on (and shortages of) wheat, rice, and sugar for the entire globe\u2026and the same goes for all those products made with the above components.<\/p>\n

WESTERN SOUTH AMERICA<\/h2>\n
\"No<\/a>

No funny words here, either. Countries with poor infrastructure to begin with are unfortunately going to get hammered.<\/p><\/div>\n

Prognosis: intense rains in regions which are typically arid. This means flooding, landslides, and outbreaks of waterborne disease (think cholera). Also, remember that warm water we talked about in the intro of this article, when the fishermen noticed that their catches became puny? Still hold true today. And it\u2019s still no bueno.<\/p>\n

SOME FINAL THOUGHTS<\/h2>\n

Regular readers of this blog<\/a>\u00a0and my material elsewhere online (here<\/strong><\/a> and here<\/strong><\/a>) know that I focus on emergency preparedness as it relates to climate change. Although El Ni\u00f1o is a weather event unto itself, it actually IS a part of the climate change equation. Specifically, if we get another strong El Ni\u00f1o this winter, the resultant global temperature increase will provide still more fuel for the climate fire, which could then trigger even more rapid overall global warming. It\u2019s like a snowball rolling downhill, getting bigger and bigger. Except in this case, it\u2019d be getting hotter. So the snow would be melting. Which means my analogy really doesn\u2019t work. But you get my point. Anyway, buckle up, campers. It\u2019s shaping up to be a heckuva century.<\/p>\n

<\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Every two to eight years, Ma Nature likes to have a little meterological fun with us. In fact, part of the joke is the irregularity of its timing; the other part is the strength of its punch. What am I talking about? El Ni\u00f1o, of course! El Ni\u00f1o (the boy, or \u201cChrist Child\u201d in Spanish) was first named by fisherman … <\/p>\n

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